(with Marcel Henkel and Eunjee Kwon)                      [R&R at the Journal of Political Economy]

We provide new empirical and theoretical evidence on the spatial consequences of public policies driven by electoral motives. Using exogenous variation in the timing of natural disasters, we show that hurricanes occurring close to Election Day in the United States lead to increased local post-disaster efforts. These electorally motivated measures lead populations to sort into hazard-prone areas. To comprehend the aggregate implications of this sorting pattern, we introduce the relationship between electoral cycles and public policies in a spatial equilibrium model. These electorally motivated policies generate considerable productivity and output losses without being compensated by aggregate welfare gains. teh

(with Rodrigo Martínez Mazza)                                    [under review]

This paper examines the effects of floods on urban development dynamics using geolocalized data on the universe of buildings in Spain from 1996 to 2021. We provide empirical evidence that floods foster local urban development and yield taller, more compact urban layouts, attracting populations, increasing property values, and shifting land use towards office and residential sectors. We argue that adaptive responses to natural disasters may trigger positive local spillovers strong enough to overcompensate for the catastrophe’s destructive nature.

      (with Albert Solé-Ollé and Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal)     [R&R at the Journal of Public Economics]

Coastal development has advantages, such as job creation, and drawbacks, such as the loss of environmental amenities, for both residents and non-residents. Local governments may prioritize their constituents’ interests, resulting in suboptimal coastal development. We investigate how political align-ment among neighboring mayors facilitates intergovernmental cooperation in the development of coastal areas. We leverage causal effects by applying a close-elections Regression Discontinuity Design to the universe of buildings in Spain. Municipalities with party-aligned mayors develop 46% less land than politically isolated ones, and politically homogeneous coastal areas develop less than frag-mented ones. The effect is particularly salient for land closest to shore and for municipalities with a large share of protected land, in which development would yield strong disamenity spillovers.

Social interactions are the fundamental drivers that establish cities as the hubs for innovation and economic growth. The daily interactivity of individuals and population groups in urban space is considered as an accelerator of social and cultural exchange. We analyze a society-wide spatial interaction network in Singapore at a very fine-grained spatial resolution. These data allow us to tackle the following questions: How sensitive are the interactions of individuals in urban space against environmental shocks? Which interactions are crucial bridges for the cohesion of cities? And what is the role of amenities such as parks or shopping malls for social interactions and, in particular, for maintaining human interactivity during adverse conditions?

(new version coming soon!)

While natural hazards have never been so frequent in modern history, the political economy of disaster preparation remains largely understudied. To prepare for natural disasters, local governments can adopt mitigation measures (e.g., infrastructure elevation, retrofitting, shelter construction, etc.). However, in doing so, there is a trade-off between risk reduction and risk disclosure as these initiatives may signal latent dangers of a place to unsuspecting homebuyers. Increased media coverage may ease this trade-off by revealing these dormant risks. I develop a measure of newspaper coverage of storms using data on newspapers’ circulation and occurrence of storms at the ZIP code level in the United States. Using the variation in this measure, I identify the effects of heightened media attention on local governments’ mitigation efforts under the Hazard Mitigation Grant program managed by FEMA. I find that when newspaper coverage is high, jurisdictions that have experienced severe storms tend to implement significantly more mitigation projects. Conversely, when coverage of storms is low, jurisdictions do not undertake mitigation projects after being hit by a storm. This effect appears to be driven by non-resident property investors seeking to maximize their investment’s value. I argue that local governments, whose budget critically depends on housing taxes and sales, might strategically underinvest in disaster preparation to avoid revealing their jurisdictions’ inherent risk to otherwise uninformed homebuyers.

Work in Progress

  • On the Substitution of Face-to-face and Online Social Interactions (with Maximilian v. Ehrlich and Markus Schläpfer)
  • Endogenous Government Formation and Spatial Sorting (with Marcel Henkel)
  • The Political Economy of Redistribution: Evidence from Urbanization in American Economic History, 1820-2010 (with Marcel Henkel)

(Top picture) San Francisco down to the Golden State as seen from the International Space Station - 05/10/2017 - © Thomas Pesquet